Photo: Lee Jae-myung on the campaign trail, c. 2021. Credit: The Blue Roof.
Democratic Party chairman Lee Jae-myung 이재명 민주당 당대표 made waves when he said in a February 18 interview that the liberal opposition was in fact “a center-right party,” and “not progressive” - an attempt to appeal to moderate voters that miffed some of the party’s longtime supporters. According to University of Kansas professor ChangHwan Kim, Lee’s move to the center reflects the South Korean society’s shift in self-assessment.
Kim points to longitudinal data from surveys asking respondents to rank their own socioeconomic status from 1 to 10. Over 20 years, from 2003 to 2023, the proportion of people who rated themselves “above average” - that is, giving themselves scores of 6 through 10 - grew from 21% to 47%. Meanwhile, the proportion of respondents who put themselves “below average” (i.e. scores of 1 through 4) decreased from 46% to 27%. This shift occurred without reference to specific demographics such as age or gender.
This shift, according to Kim, suggests that the South Korean public will be more oriented toward stability, and become more hostile toward redistributive policies. We are unlikely to see a reprise of the 2012 presidential election, in which the right-wing candidate Park Geun-hye 박근혜 made a surprising move toward the center by promising the expansion of the welfare state.