Opinion polls have emerged as a major battlefront in South Korean politics. One of the events that led to Yoon Suk-yeol 윤석열’s self-coup attempt was the investigation of Myeong Tae-gyun 명태균, a crooked pollster who cooked up survey results favorable to major conservative politicians, including Yoon. (See previous coverage, “Beginning of the End for Yoon.”) After Yoon’s impeachment, there were some polls that claimed, improbably, that the disgraced president remained popular - bad data that was subsequently debunked by cleverly designed surveys. (See previous coverage, “Polling Shenanigans.”)
On the liberal side, there is Flower Research 여론조사 꽃, a polling house founded by progressive pundit Kim Eo-jun 김어준. (See Key Players: “Korea’s Most Important Pundit.”) Kim established Flower Research in 2022 shortly after Yoon’s narrow presidential victory, claiming that poll results that showed Yoon leading Lee Jae-myung 이재명 by as much as 10% misled liberal voters and discouraged turnout, resulting in a narrow 0.7% loss for Lee.
Flower Research claims to be more rigorous and independent than other polling houses, because it is entirely dependent on paid subscriptions, and does not accept commissions for surveys. Flower Research says its polls are more accurate because it spends more to ensure larger sample sizes and longer survey periods for each poll. As Kim’s typically catchy slogan has it, “Expensive is Accurate! 비싼 게 정확하다!” Although critics have seized on the fact that polls from Flower Research have consistently shown a greater liberal lead than those from other firms, Flower’s data has been borne out by election results since 2022.
With an early presidential election appearing likely, Flower Research is getting ready to spring into action. Kim boasts that Flower Research plans to spend more than KRW 1b (USD 690k) in the prospective election season, with sample sizes of between 5k to 15k as compared to a more typical 1k sample for other polling houses. In Flower’s latest poll, covering March 10 through 13, 47.5% of respondents said they would vote for a Democratic Party 민주당 candidate in the next presidential election. 31.6% of respondents said they would vote for the People Power Party 국민의힘 candidate.